Live record starts Jul 11 · UFC Vegas 123
Data-driven MMA picks,
every result published.
Two proprietary engines rate every fight on the card. One email per fight week with the bets, the stakes, and the fights worth skipping. Free.
+$11,328backtest profit since 2021, $100 base bets
5 / 6profitable backtest years
Jul 11live record begins
This week
UFC Vegas 123: Moicano vs. Nolan
Sunday, November 1. Logged October 29, settled after the card.
The slatePENDING
JeongYeong Lee vs Julian Erosa | −163 | STYLE | $160 8% of roll |
Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan | −122 | STYLE | $80 4% of roll |
Luana Santos vs Yana Santos | −286 | MODEL | $35 1.75% of roll |
Jacobe Smith vs Randy Brown | −278 | MODEL | $35 1.75% of roll |
Parlay JeongYeong Lee + Renato Moicano + Luana Santos | +296 | PARLAY | $50 2.5% of roll |
Parlay JeongYeong Lee + Renato Moicano + Luana Santos + Jacobe Smith | +439 | PARLAY | $50 2.5% of roll |
🙅 Passed on 6 fights this card. The engines saw nothing worth betting.
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Dollar stakes assume a $2,000 reference bankroll — the % of roll is what matters, scale it to yours. Shop your own lines, prices move.
How it works
Two engines. One slate.
Built independently, on different principles. Where they see something, we bet. Where they don't, we sit.
🤖
The Model
A proprietary machine-learning fight engine trained on every UFC bout since 2010. It rates every matchup and flags the ones where the numbers disagree with the price.
🎯
The Style Map
A separate system that maps how every fighter actually fights, statistically, from their record. Some matchups are readable; most aren't. The Style Map knows the difference.
âš¡
The combination
The edge is in the overlap: two engines agreeing independently. Picks are strongest where they converge, and stakes scale with conviction.
🙅
The skip list
Most fights are no-bets, and that discipline is what makes the rest work. Every email shows what we skipped. Passing is the edge.
Live record
Published before the fights. No edits.
Live record (picks frozen before each event, no retroactive edits)
56–42record (98 settled)
+$3,520P&L on $8,400 staked
41.9%return on stakes
Live cumulative P&L · bet by bet
Every settled bet
| Date | Bet | Odds | Signals | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | ParlayAbdul Rakhman Yakhyaev + Daniel Santos + Petr Yan + Abus Magomedov + Alexander Volkanovski + Alexander Volkov + Nurullo Aliev | +4269 | PARLAY | $25 | −$25 |
| 2026-10-24 | ParlayDaniel Santos + Petr Yan + Abus Magomedov + Alexander Volkov + Alexander Volkanovski + Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | +2117 | PARLAY | $50 | +$1,059 |
| 2026-10-24 | ParlayDaniel Santos + Petr Yan + Abus Magomedov | +444 | PARLAY | $50 | +$222 |
| 2026-10-24 | Nurullo AlievGrant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev | −103 | DOG | $25 | −$25 |
| 2026-10-24 | Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevAbdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Nikita Krylov | −500 | MODEL | $35 | +$7 |
| 2026-10-24 | Alexander VolkovAlexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev | −126 | STYLE | $80 | +$64 |
| 2026-10-24 | Alexander VolkanovskiAlexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev | −112 | STYLE | $80 | +$71 |
| 2026-10-24 | Abus MagomedovAbus Magomedov vs Cam Rowston | −127 | STYLE | $80 | +$63 |
| 2026-10-24 | Petr YanMerab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan | −150 | STYLE | $160 | +$107 |
| 2026-10-24 | Daniel SantosBolaji Oki vs Daniel Santos | −121 | MODELSTYLE | $390 | +$322 |
| 2026-10-17 | ParlayErin Blanchfield + Melissa Croden + Kyle Daukaus + Mike Malott | +345 | PARLAY | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-10-17 | ParlayErin Blanchfield + Melissa Croden + Kyle Daukaus | +154 | PARLAY | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-10-17 | Kyle DaukausKyle Daukaus vs Marc-Andre Barriault | −205 | MODEL | $35 | −$35 |
| 2026-10-17 | Erin BlanchfieldErin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius | −335 | MODEL | $35 | −$35 |
| 2026-10-17 | Mike MalottJoaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott | −133 | MODEL | $35 | +$26 |
| 2026-10-17 | Melissa CrodenChelsea Chandler vs Melissa Croden | −318 | MODEL | $35 | −$35 |
| 2026-10-11 | ParlayMelissa Gatto + Brendan Allen + Ismael Bonfim + Loopy Godinez + Matheus Camilo | +1121 | PARLAY | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-10-11 | ParlayMelissa Gatto + Brendan Allen + Ismael Bonfim | +476 | PARLAY | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-10-11 | Loopy GodinezKetlen Souza vs Loopy Godinez | −235 | MODEL | $35 | +$15 |
| 2026-10-11 | Matheus CamiloJai Herbert vs Matheus Camilo | −205 | MODEL | $35 | −$35 |
| 2026-10-11 | Brendan AllenBrendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan | −137 | STYLE | $160 | +$117 |
| 2026-10-11 | Ismael BonfimFrancisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim | −116 | STYLE | $160 | −$160 |
| 2026-10-11 | Melissa GattoErnesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto | −127 | MODELSTYLE | $230 | −$230 |
| 2026-10-03 | Alexander HernandezAlexander Hernandez vs Rafael Dos Anjos | −265 | MODEL | $35 | +$13 |
| 2026-10-03 | Ismail NaurdievIsmail Naurdiev vs Marvin Vettori | −141 | MODELSTYLE | $390 | +$277 |
| 2026-09-26 | Raoni BarcelosRaoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr. | +150 | DOG | $25 | −$25 |
| 2026-09-26 | John CastanedaAlatengheili vs John Castaneda | −333 | MODEL | $35 | −$35 |
| 2026-09-26 | Rinya NakamuraBrady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura | −335 | MODEL | $35 | −$35 |
| 2026-09-26 | Ailin PerezAilin Perez vs Norma Dumont | −137 | STYLE | $160 | +$117 |
| 2026-09-26 | Rodolfo VieiraRobert Bryczek vs Rodolfo Vieira | −155 | MODELSTYLE | $390 | +$252 |
| 2026-09-19 | Joanderson BritoGiga Chikadze vs Joanderson Brito | −400 | MODEL | $35 | +$9 |
| 2026-09-19 | Casey O'NeillCasey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura | −210 | MODEL | $35 | +$17 |
| 2026-09-19 | Iwo BaraniewskiAlonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski | −235 | MODEL | $35 | −$35 |
| 2026-09-19 | Edmen ShahbazyanBrunno Ferreira vs Edmen Shahbazyan | −161 | MODEL | $35 | +$22 |
| 2026-09-19 | Charles JourdainCharles Jourdain vs Marlon Vera | −230 | MODEL | $35 | −$35 |
| 2026-09-19 | Arman TsarukyanArman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy | −316 | MODEL | $35 | +$11 |
| 2026-09-19 | Joshua VanAlexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van | −134 | STYLE | $80 | +$60 |
| 2026-09-12 | ParlayJoseph Morales + David Martinez + Manon Fiorot + Waldo Cortes Acosta + Edgar Chairez | +589 | PARLAY | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-09-12 | ParlayJoseph Morales + David Martinez + Manon Fiorot | +222 | PARLAY | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-09-12 | Edgar ChairezEdgar Chairez vs Tim Elliott | −215 | MODEL | $35 | −$35 |
| 2026-09-12 | Manon FiorotAlexa Grasso vs Manon Fiorot | −245 | MODEL | $35 | −$35 |
| 2026-09-12 | Waldo Cortes AcostaCurtis Blaydes vs Waldo Cortes Acosta | −217 | MODEL | $35 | −$35 |
| 2026-09-12 | David MartinezDan Ige vs David Martinez | −371 | MODEL | $35 | +$9 |
| 2026-09-12 | Joseph MoralesBrandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales | −125 | STYLE | $160 | −$160 |
| 2026-09-05 | ParlayFelipe Lima + Mario Pinto + Michael Page + Nora Cornolle + Punahele Soriano | +1554 | PARLAY | $25 | −$25 |
| 2026-09-05 | ParlayFelipe Lima + Michael Page + Nora Cornolle + Mario Pinto | +461 | PARLAY | $50 | +$231 |
| 2026-09-05 | ParlayFelipe Lima + Michael Page + Nora Cornolle | +315 | PARLAY | $50 | +$158 |
| 2026-09-05 | Punahele SorianoDaniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano | +195 | DOG | $25 | −$25 |
| 2026-09-05 | Mario PintoMario Pinto vs Ryan Spann | −286 | MODEL | $35 | +$12 |
| 2026-09-05 | Nora CornolleKlaudia Sygula vs Nora Cornolle | −127 | STYLE | $80 | +$63 |
| 2026-09-05 | Michael PageMichael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev | −185 | STYLE | $160 | +$87 |
| 2026-09-05 | Felipe LimaFelipe Lima vs Morgan Charriere | −197 | MODELSTYLE | $230 | +$117 |
| 2026-08-29 | ParlayRei Tsuruya + Sean Woodson + Umar Nurmagomedov + Kai Asakura + Denise Gomes | +519 | PARLAY | $25 | −$25 |
| 2026-08-29 | ParlaySean Woodson + Rei Tsuruya + Umar Nurmagomedov + Kai Asakura | +171 | PARLAY | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-08-29 | ParlaySean Woodson + Rei Tsuruya + Umar Nurmagomedov | +123 | PARLAY | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-08-29 | Denise GomesDenise Gomes vs Yan Xiaonan | +128 | DOG | $25 | +$32 |
| 2026-08-29 | Kai AsakuraAoriqileng vs Kai Asakura | −460 | MODEL | $100 | +$22 |
| 2026-08-29 | Umar NurmagomedovSong Yadong vs Umar Nurmagomedov | −530 | MODEL | $100 | −$100 |
| 2026-08-29 | Rei TsuruyaKevin Borjas vs Rei Tsuruya | −800 | MODEL | $100 | +$13 |
| 2026-08-29 | Sean WoodsonJack Jenkins vs Sean Woodson | −150 | MODELSTYLE | $250 | +$167 |
| 2026-08-15 | ParlayVicente Luque + Kaue Fernandes | +416 | PARLAY | $25 | −$25 |
| 2026-08-15 | ParlayRamiz Brahimaj + Myktybek Orolbai + Mansur Abdul-Malik | +132 | PARLAY | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-08-15 | Kaue FernandesJalin Turner vs Kaue Fernandes | +140 | DOG | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gillian RobertsonGillian Robertson vs Mackenzie Dern | +186 | DOG | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-08-15 | Vicente LuqueTresean Gore vs Vicente Luque | +115 | DOG | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-08-15 | Esteban RibovicsEdson Barboza vs Esteban Ribovics | −530 | MODEL | $100 | +$19 |
| 2026-08-15 | Joel AlvarezChidi Njokuani vs Joel Alvarez | −277 | MODEL | $100 | −$100 |
| 2026-08-15 | Myktybek OrolbaiJeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai | −872 | MODEL | $100 | −$100 |
| 2026-08-15 | Mansur Abdul-MalikDustin Stoltzfus vs Mansur Abdul-Malik | −611 | MODEL | $100 | −$100 |
| 2026-08-15 | Islam MakhachevIan Machado Garry vs Islam Makhachev | −350 | MODEL | $100 | +$29 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ramiz BrahimajNeil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj | −127 | STYLE | $150 | −$150 |
| 2026-08-08 | ParlayDiyar Nurgozhay + Alexia Thainara + Juliana Miller + Diego Ferreira + Mateusz Gamrot | +998 | PARLAY | $25 | −$25 |
| 2026-08-08 | ParlayDiego Ferreira + Juliana Miller + Alexia Thainara + Diyar Nurgozhay | +392 | PARLAY | $50 | +$196 |
| 2026-08-08 | ParlayDiego Ferreira + Juliana Miller + Alexia Thainara | +200 | PARLAY | $50 | +$100 |
| 2026-08-08 | Mateusz GamrotMateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld | +123 | DOG | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-08-08 | Juliana MillerJuliana Miller vs Ravena Oliveira | −270 | MODEL | $100 | +$37 |
| 2026-08-08 | Alexia ThainaraAlexia Thainara vs Amanda Lemos | −247 | MODEL | $100 | +$41 |
| 2026-08-08 | Diyar NurgozhayBruno Lopes vs Diyar Nurgozhay | −156 | MODEL | $100 | +$64 |
| 2026-08-08 | Diego FerreiraBilly Quarantillo vs Diego Ferreira | −179 | MODELSTYLE | $250 | +$140 |
| 2026-08-01 | ParlayMateusz Rebecki + Navajo Stirling | −200 | PARLAY | $100 | +$50 |
| 2026-08-01 | ParlayMateusz Rebecki + Navajo Stirling + Dusko Todorovic | +261 | PARLAY | $25 | −$25 |
| 2026-08-01 | Dusko TodorovicRobert Valentin vs Dusko Todorovic | +140 | DOG | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-08-01 | Navajo StirlingNavajo Stirling vs Jan Blachowicz | −330 | MODEL | $100 | +$30 |
| 2026-08-01 | Mateusz RebeckiMateusz Rebecki vs Kyle Prepolec | −649 | MODEL | $100 | +$15 |
| 2026-07-25 | ParlayValter Walker + Magomed Ankalaev + Sam Patterson | +117 | PARLAY | $100 | +$117 |
| 2026-07-25 | Valter WalkerValter Walker vs Thomas Petersen | −188 | STYLE | $150 | +$80 |
| 2026-07-25 | Sam PattersonSam Patterson vs Santiago Ponzinibbio | −500 | MODEL | $100 | +$20 |
| 2026-07-25 | Magomed AnkalaevMagomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov | −549 | MODEL | $100 | +$18 |
| 2026-07-18 | ParlayFatima Kline + Christian Leroy Duncan + Dricus Du Plessis | +141 | PARLAY | $100 | +$141 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fatima KlineFatima Kline vs Tabatha Ricci | −465 | MODEL | $100 | +$22 |
| 2026-07-18 | Dricus Du PlessisDricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman | −205 | MODEL | $100 | +$49 |
| 2026-07-18 | Christian Leroy DuncanChristian Leroy Duncan vs Jared Cannonier | −300 | MODEL | $100 | +$33 |
| 2026-07-11 | ParlayWang Cong + Alessandro Costa + Robert Whittaker | +391 | PARLAY | $100 | +$391 |
| 2026-07-11 | ParlayAlessandro Costa + Robert Whittaker + Wang Cong + Mario Bautista | +1044 | PARLAY | $25 | +$261 |
| 2026-07-11 | Wang CongWang Cong vs Tracy Cortez | −120 | MODELSTYLE | $175 | +$146 |
| 2026-07-11 | Robert WhittakerRobert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov | −125 | STYLE | $75 | +$60 |
| 2026-07-11 | Mario BautistaMario Bautista vs Cory Sandhagen | +133 | DOG | $50 | +$67 |
| 2026-07-11 | Alessandro CostaAlessandro Costa vs Cody Durden | −205 | MODEL | $100 | +$49 |
Performance
The record.
The current strategy, replayed over every MMA card since 2021. Every prediction comes from a model trained only on fights before that date, priced at consensus closing odds.
+$11,328backtest profit at $100 flat bets
1losing years in backtest
6 betspending, live record starts 07/11
Cumulative P&L +$11,328 · every individual bet
Bet log · last 15 of 1254
Show all 1,254 picks →| Date | Bet | Signals | Stake | P&L | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | ParlayDaniel Santos + Azamat Murzakanov + Petr Yan + Abus Magomedov + Alexander Volkov + Movsar Evloev + Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev + Iasmin Lucindo @ 44.49 | PARLAY | $50 | −$50 | +$11,328 |
| 2026-10-24 | ParlayDaniel Santos + Azamat Murzakanov + Petr Yan @ 4.72 | PARLAY | $50 | −$50 | +$11,378 |
| 2026-10-24 | ParlayAbdul Rakhman Yakhyaev + Abus Magomedov + Movsar Evloev + Alexander Volkov + Daniel Santos + Azamat Murzakanov + Iasmin Lucindo + Petr Yan + Nurullo Aliev @ 87.69 | PARLAY | $25 | −$25 | +$11,428 |
| 2026-10-24 | Petr YanPetr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili @ 1.667 | STYLE | $160 | +$107 | +$11,453 |
| 2026-10-24 | Iasmin LucindoIasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari @ 1.25 | MODEL | $35 | +$9 | +$11,346 |
| 2026-10-24 | Nurullo AlievGrant Dawson vs Nurullo Aliev @ 1.971 | DOG | $25 | −$25 | +$11,338 |
| 2026-10-24 | Azamat MurzakanovDominick Reyes vs Azamat Murzakanov @ 1.549 | MODELSTYLE | $230 | −$230 | +$11,363 |
| 2026-10-24 | Daniel SantosDaniel Santos vs Bolaji Oki @ 1.826 | MODELSTYLE | $390 | +$322 | +$11,593 |
| 2026-10-24 | Alexander VolkovAlexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev @ 1.794 | STYLE | $80 | +$64 | +$11,271 |
| 2026-10-24 | Movsar EvloevAlexander Volkanovski vs Movsar Evloev @ 1.962 | STYLE | $80 | −$80 | +$11,207 |
| 2026-10-24 | Abus MagomedovAbus Magomedov vs Cam Rowston @ 1.787 | STYLE | $80 | +$63 | +$11,287 |
| 2026-10-24 | Abdul Rakhman YakhyaevAbdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Nikita Krylov @ 1.2 | MODEL | $35 | +$7 | +$11,224 |
| 2026-10-17 | ParlayKyle Daukaus + Erin Blanchfield + Melissa Croden + Mike Malott @ 4.45 | PARLAY | $50 | −$50 | +$11,217 |
| 2026-10-17 | ParlayKyle Daukaus + Erin Blanchfield + Melissa Croden @ 2.54 | PARLAY | $50 | −$50 | +$11,267 |
| 2026-10-17 | Mike MalottMike Malott vs Joaquin Buckley @ 1.752 | MODEL | $35 | +$26 | +$11,317 |
Backtests flatter: they assume consensus prices and can't fully escape hindsight. That's why the live record, published before each event with no retroactive edits, is the number that counts.