Live record starts Jul 11 · Noche UFC
Data-driven MMA picks,
every result published.
Two proprietary engines rate every fight on the card. One email per fight week with the bets, the stakes, and the fights worth skipping. Free.
+$13,018backtest profit since 2021, $100 base bets
5 / 6profitable backtest years
Jul 11live record begins
This week
Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado
Saturday, September 12. Logged September 7, settled after the card.
The slatePENDING
Joseph Morales vs Brandon Moreno | −129 | STYLE | $160 8% of roll |
David Martinez vs Dan Ige | −350 | MODEL | $35 1.75% of roll |
Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes | −215 | MODEL | $35 1.75% of roll |
Manon Fiorot vs Alexa Grasso | −225 | MODEL | $35 1.75% of roll |
Edgar Chairez vs Tim Elliott | −205 | MODEL | $35 1.75% of roll |
Parlay Joseph Morales + David Martinez + Manon Fiorot | +230 | PARLAY | $50 2.5% of roll |
Parlay Joseph Morales + David Martinez + Manon Fiorot + Waldo Cortes Acosta + Edgar Chairez | +619 | PARLAY | $50 2.5% of roll |
🙅 Passed on 6 fights this card. The engines saw nothing worth betting.
Never miss a card
The full slate lands in your inbox on fight week: picks, stakes, odds, and the skip list. One email, no spam, free.
Free. One email per fight week. No spam.
Dollar stakes assume a $2,000 reference bankroll — the % of roll is what matters, scale it to yours. Shop your own lines, prices move.
How it works
Two engines. One slate.
Built independently, on different principles. Where they see something, we bet. Where they don't, we sit.
🤖
The Model
A proprietary machine-learning fight engine trained on every UFC bout since 2010. It rates every matchup and flags the ones where the numbers disagree with the price.
🎯
The Style Map
A separate system that maps how every fighter actually fights, statistically, from their record. Some matchups are readable; most aren't. The Style Map knows the difference.
âš¡
The combination
The edge is in the overlap: two engines agreeing independently. Picks are strongest where they converge, and stakes scale with conviction.
🙅
The skip list
Most fights are no-bets, and that discipline is what makes the rest work. Every email shows what we skipped. Passing is the edge.
Live record
Published before the fights. No edits.
Live record (picks frozen before each event, no retroactive edits)
35–19record (54 settled)
+$1,973P&L on $4,705 staked
41.9%return on stakes
Live cumulative P&L · bet by bet
Every settled bet
| Date | Bet | Odds | Signals | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | ParlayFelipe Lima + Mario Pinto + Michael Page + Nora Cornolle + Punahele Soriano | +1554 | PARLAY | $25 | −$25 |
| 2026-09-05 | ParlayFelipe Lima + Michael Page + Nora Cornolle + Mario Pinto | +461 | PARLAY | $50 | +$231 |
| 2026-09-05 | ParlayFelipe Lima + Michael Page + Nora Cornolle | +315 | PARLAY | $50 | +$158 |
| 2026-09-05 | Punahele SorianoDaniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano | +195 | DOG | $25 | −$25 |
| 2026-09-05 | Mario PintoMario Pinto vs Ryan Spann | −286 | MODEL | $35 | +$12 |
| 2026-09-05 | Nora CornolleKlaudia Sygula vs Nora Cornolle | −127 | STYLE | $80 | +$63 |
| 2026-09-05 | Michael PageMichael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev | −185 | STYLE | $160 | +$87 |
| 2026-09-05 | Felipe LimaFelipe Lima vs Morgan Charriere | −197 | MODELSTYLE | $230 | +$117 |
| 2026-08-29 | ParlayRei Tsuruya + Sean Woodson + Umar Nurmagomedov + Kai Asakura + Denise Gomes | +519 | PARLAY | $25 | −$25 |
| 2026-08-29 | ParlaySean Woodson + Rei Tsuruya + Umar Nurmagomedov + Kai Asakura | +171 | PARLAY | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-08-29 | ParlaySean Woodson + Rei Tsuruya + Umar Nurmagomedov | +123 | PARLAY | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-08-29 | Denise GomesDenise Gomes vs Yan Xiaonan | +128 | DOG | $25 | +$32 |
| 2026-08-29 | Kai AsakuraAoriqileng vs Kai Asakura | −460 | MODEL | $100 | +$22 |
| 2026-08-29 | Umar NurmagomedovSong Yadong vs Umar Nurmagomedov | −530 | MODEL | $100 | −$100 |
| 2026-08-29 | Rei TsuruyaKevin Borjas vs Rei Tsuruya | −800 | MODEL | $100 | +$13 |
| 2026-08-29 | Sean WoodsonJack Jenkins vs Sean Woodson | −150 | MODELSTYLE | $250 | +$167 |
| 2026-08-15 | ParlayVicente Luque + Kaue Fernandes | +416 | PARLAY | $25 | −$25 |
| 2026-08-15 | ParlayRamiz Brahimaj + Myktybek Orolbai + Mansur Abdul-Malik | +132 | PARLAY | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-08-15 | Kaue FernandesJalin Turner vs Kaue Fernandes | +140 | DOG | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-08-15 | Gillian RobertsonGillian Robertson vs Mackenzie Dern | +186 | DOG | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-08-15 | Vicente LuqueTresean Gore vs Vicente Luque | +115 | DOG | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-08-15 | Esteban RibovicsEdson Barboza vs Esteban Ribovics | −530 | MODEL | $100 | +$19 |
| 2026-08-15 | Joel AlvarezChidi Njokuani vs Joel Alvarez | −277 | MODEL | $100 | −$100 |
| 2026-08-15 | Myktybek OrolbaiJeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai | −872 | MODEL | $100 | −$100 |
| 2026-08-15 | Mansur Abdul-MalikDustin Stoltzfus vs Mansur Abdul-Malik | −611 | MODEL | $100 | −$100 |
| 2026-08-15 | Islam MakhachevIan Machado Garry vs Islam Makhachev | −350 | MODEL | $100 | +$29 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ramiz BrahimajNeil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj | −127 | STYLE | $150 | −$150 |
| 2026-08-08 | ParlayDiyar Nurgozhay + Alexia Thainara + Juliana Miller + Diego Ferreira + Mateusz Gamrot | +998 | PARLAY | $25 | −$25 |
| 2026-08-08 | ParlayDiego Ferreira + Juliana Miller + Alexia Thainara + Diyar Nurgozhay | +392 | PARLAY | $50 | +$196 |
| 2026-08-08 | ParlayDiego Ferreira + Juliana Miller + Alexia Thainara | +200 | PARLAY | $50 | +$100 |
| 2026-08-08 | Mateusz GamrotMateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld | +123 | DOG | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-08-08 | Juliana MillerJuliana Miller vs Ravena Oliveira | −270 | MODEL | $100 | +$37 |
| 2026-08-08 | Alexia ThainaraAlexia Thainara vs Amanda Lemos | −247 | MODEL | $100 | +$41 |
| 2026-08-08 | Diyar NurgozhayBruno Lopes vs Diyar Nurgozhay | −156 | MODEL | $100 | +$64 |
| 2026-08-08 | Diego FerreiraBilly Quarantillo vs Diego Ferreira | −179 | MODELSTYLE | $250 | +$140 |
| 2026-08-01 | ParlayMateusz Rebecki + Navajo Stirling | −200 | PARLAY | $100 | +$50 |
| 2026-08-01 | ParlayMateusz Rebecki + Navajo Stirling + Dusko Todorovic | +261 | PARLAY | $25 | −$25 |
| 2026-08-01 | Dusko TodorovicRobert Valentin vs Dusko Todorovic | +140 | DOG | $50 | −$50 |
| 2026-08-01 | Navajo StirlingNavajo Stirling vs Jan Blachowicz | −330 | MODEL | $100 | +$30 |
| 2026-08-01 | Mateusz RebeckiMateusz Rebecki vs Kyle Prepolec | −649 | MODEL | $100 | +$15 |
| 2026-07-25 | ParlayValter Walker + Magomed Ankalaev + Sam Patterson | +117 | PARLAY | $100 | +$117 |
| 2026-07-25 | Valter WalkerValter Walker vs Thomas Petersen | −188 | STYLE | $150 | +$80 |
| 2026-07-25 | Sam PattersonSam Patterson vs Santiago Ponzinibbio | −500 | MODEL | $100 | +$20 |
| 2026-07-25 | Magomed AnkalaevMagomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov | −549 | MODEL | $100 | +$18 |
| 2026-07-18 | ParlayFatima Kline + Christian Leroy Duncan + Dricus Du Plessis | +141 | PARLAY | $100 | +$141 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fatima KlineFatima Kline vs Tabatha Ricci | −465 | MODEL | $100 | +$22 |
| 2026-07-18 | Dricus Du PlessisDricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman | −205 | MODEL | $100 | +$49 |
| 2026-07-18 | Christian Leroy DuncanChristian Leroy Duncan vs Jared Cannonier | −300 | MODEL | $100 | +$33 |
| 2026-07-11 | ParlayWang Cong + Alessandro Costa + Robert Whittaker | +391 | PARLAY | $100 | +$391 |
| 2026-07-11 | ParlayAlessandro Costa + Robert Whittaker + Wang Cong + Mario Bautista | +1044 | PARLAY | $25 | +$261 |
| 2026-07-11 | Wang CongWang Cong vs Tracy Cortez | −120 | MODELSTYLE | $175 | +$146 |
| 2026-07-11 | Robert WhittakerRobert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov | −125 | STYLE | $75 | +$60 |
| 2026-07-11 | Mario BautistaMario Bautista vs Cory Sandhagen | +133 | DOG | $50 | +$67 |
| 2026-07-11 | Alessandro CostaAlessandro Costa vs Cody Durden | −205 | MODEL | $100 | +$49 |
Performance
The record.
The current strategy, replayed over every MMA card since 2021. Every prediction comes from a model trained only on fights before that date, priced at consensus closing odds.
+$13,018backtest profit at $100 flat bets
1losing years in backtest
7 betspending, live record starts 07/11
Cumulative P&L +$13,018 · every individual bet
Bet log · last 15 of 1166
Show all 1,166 picks →| Date | Bet | Signals | Stake | P&L | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | ParlayFelipe Lima + Michael Page + Klaudia Sygula + Mario Pinto @ 5.87 | PARLAY | $50 | −$50 | +$13,016 |
| 2026-09-05 | ParlayFelipe Lima + Michael Page + Klaudia Sygula @ 4.34 | PARLAY | $50 | −$50 | +$13,066 |
| 2026-09-05 | Klaudia SygulaNora Cornolle vs Klaudia Sygula @ 1.87 | STYLE | $80 | −$80 | +$13,116 |
| 2026-09-05 | Michael PageMichael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev @ 1.541 | STYLE | $160 | +$87 | +$13,196 |
| 2026-09-05 | Mario PintoMario Pinto vs Ryan Spann @ 1.35 | MODEL | $35 | +$12 | +$13,110 |
| 2026-09-05 | Felipe LimaFelipe Lima vs Morgan Charriere @ 1.508 | MODELSTYLE | $230 | +$117 | +$13,097 |
| 2026-08-29 | ParlayRei Tsuruya + Umar Nurmagomedov + Kai Asakura @ 1.63 | PARLAY | $100 | −$100 | +$12,981 |
| 2026-08-29 | ParlayKai Asakura + Rei Tsuruya + Umar Nurmagomedov + Denise Gomes @ 3.71 | PARLAY | $25 | −$25 | +$13,081 |
| 2026-08-29 | Umar NurmagomedovSong Yadong vs Umar Nurmagomedov @ 1.189 | MODEL | $35 | −$35 | +$13,106 |
| 2026-08-29 | Rei TsuruyaRei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas @ 1.125 | MODEL | $35 | +$4 | +$13,141 |
| 2026-08-29 | Kai AsakuraKai Asakura vs Aoriqileng @ 1.217 | MODEL | $35 | +$8 | +$13,136 |
| 2026-08-29 | Denise GomesDenise Gomes vs Yan Xiaonan @ 2.28 | DOG | $25 | +$32 | +$13,129 |
| 2026-08-22 | ParlayReinier de Ridder + Mason Jones + Chris Padilla @ 3.1 | PARLAY | $100 | −$100 | +$13,097 |
| 2026-08-22 | Reinier de RidderReinier de Ridder vs Roman Dolidze @ 1.256 | MODEL | $35 | +$9 | +$13,197 |
| 2026-08-22 | Mason JonesMarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones @ 1.294 | MODEL | $35 | −$35 | +$13,188 |
Backtests flatter: they assume consensus prices and can't fully escape hindsight. That's why the live record, published before each event with no retroactive edits, is the number that counts.