Data-driven UFC picks,
every result published.
Two proprietary engines rate every fight on the card. One email per fight week with the bets, the stakes, and the fights worth skipping. Free.
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Saturday, July 11 · T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. Logged July 3, settled after the card.
Max Holloway vs Conor McGregor | −230 | MODEL | $100 |
Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden | −250 | MODEL | $100 |
Wang Cong vs Tracy Cortez | −118 | STYLE | $75 |
Parlay Costa + Holloway + Wang Cong | +271 | PARLAY | $100 |
Never miss a card
The full slate lands in your inbox on fight week: picks, stakes, odds, and the skip list. One email, no spam, free.
Stakes assume a $100 base bet. Scale everything to your bankroll. Shop your own lines, prices move.
Two engines. One slate.
Built independently, on different principles. Where they see something, we bet. Where they don't, we sit.
The Model
A proprietary machine-learning fight engine trained on every UFC bout since 2010. It rates every matchup and flags the ones where the numbers disagree with the price.
The Style Map
A separate system that maps how every fighter actually fights, statistically, from their record. Some matchups are readable; most aren't. The Style Map knows the difference.
The combination
The edge is in the overlap: two engines agreeing independently. Picks are strongest where they converge, and stakes scale with conviction.
The skip list
Most fights are no-bets, and that discipline is what makes the rest work. Every email shows what we skipped. Passing is the edge.
The record.
The current strategy, replayed over every UFC card since 2021. Every prediction comes from a model trained only on fights before that date, priced at consensus closing odds.
Cumulative P&L +$9,167 · every individual bet
Bet log · last 15 of 1344
Show all 1,344 picks →| Date | Bet | Signals | Stake | P&L | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | ParlayValter Walker + Magomed Ankalaev + Sam Patterson @ 2.17 | PARLAY | $100 | +$117 | +$9,166 |
| 2026-07-25 | Valter WalkerValter Walker vs Thomas Petersen @ 1.532 | STYLE | $150 | +$80 | +$9,048 |
| 2026-07-25 | Sam PattersonSam Patterson vs Santiago Ponzinibbio @ 1.2 | MODEL | $100 | +$20 | +$8,969 |
| 2026-07-25 | Magomed AnkalaevMagomed Ankalaev vs Bogdan Guskov @ 1.182 | MODEL | $100 | +$18 | +$8,949 |
| 2026-07-18 | ParlayFatima Kline + Christian Leroy Duncan + Dricus Du Plessis @ 2.41 | PARLAY | $100 | +$141 | +$8,930 |
| 2026-07-18 | Fatima KlineFatima Kline vs Tabatha Ricci @ 1.215 | MODEL | $100 | +$22 | +$8,789 |
| 2026-07-18 | Dricus Du PlessisDricus Du Plessis vs Kamaru Usman @ 1.488 | MODEL | $100 | +$49 | +$8,768 |
| 2026-07-18 | Christian Leroy DuncanChristian Leroy Duncan vs Jared Cannonier @ 1.333 | MODEL | $100 | +$33 | +$8,719 |
| 2026-07-11 | ParlayWang Cong + Alessandro Costa + Robert Whittaker @ 4.91 | PARLAY | $100 | +$391 | +$8,686 |
| 2026-07-11 | ParlayAlessandro Costa + Robert Whittaker + Wang Cong + Mario Bautista @ 11.44 | PARLAY | $25 | +$261 | +$8,295 |
| 2026-07-11 | Wang CongWang Cong vs Tracy Cortez @ 1.833 | MODELSTYLE | $175 | +$146 | +$8,034 |
| 2026-07-11 | Robert WhittakerRobert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov @ 1.8 | STYLE | $75 | +$60 | +$7,888 |
| 2026-07-11 | Mario BautistaMario Bautista vs Cory Sandhagen @ 2.33 | DOG | $50 | +$66 | +$7,828 |
| 2026-07-11 | Alessandro CostaAlessandro Costa vs Cody Durden @ 1.488 | MODEL | $100 | +$49 | +$7,761 |
| 2026-06-27 | ParlayNursulton Ruziboev + Shara Magomedov + Asu Almabayev + Ikram Aliskerov + Michal Oleksiejczuk + Rafael Fiziev @ 14.21 | PARLAY | $50 | −$50 | +$7,713 |
Backtests flatter: they assume consensus prices and can't fully escape hindsight. That's why the live record, published before each event with no retroactive edits, is the number that counts.